Google OS: should we care?

This week was the official announcement that the Google OS was real and not just a figment of geekdom's imagination.

If you google "Google OS", there is literally an avalanche of punditry on all sides of this issue.

Should we care? Or, most poignantly, should Apple or Microsoft care?

The short answer is that everyone will care about the new Google OS effort. Here are some thoughts about how it might effect each group.

Apple

Traditional market and game theory would suggest that Apple has the most to lose in a Google OS beachhead. I disagree. Apple is moving towards network-based computing from the device end. This vertically integrated strategy has considerable strength because Apple can fine-tune the user experience based upon overall quality of networks and device computing power.

People have been proposing and postulating "net computers" for 15 years or more. No one has done it successfully because the user experience is just too good with local computing.

As the 3G networks become ubiquitous net computers will become possible and even desirable, but I think Apple can play a strong hand by building on top of its strong devices.

Microsoft

No monolith ever falls from top over night. This will be true for MS as well. Google OS is targeted directly on Microsoft.

I think the real reason that Google has countered with Google OS is that they perceive that Microsoft's Bing finally means that Redmond is serious (or competent) about Search. Google is an advertising company, first and foremost, and Google OS means that the platform vendor cannot shut out its advertising revenue.

I would look for search/advertising/operating system to merge for both these companies on the consumer side.

Will Google take significant share from Microsoft? Not initially, but look for Google to get at least 10% of the netbook sales in 2011.

I think that Google will have a harder time in the enterprise market. Nothing I have seen here looks like it solves business problems.

Consumers

Consumers get more choices. This is almost always a good thing. In the end portability of data will be the issue that people will be most worried about with any of the net vendors. How easy will it be to move my pictures from Flickr to Picassa? Can I move my Google Docs to Microsoft LiveOffice and vice versa? This FUD will slow adoption at first, but I suspect their will be a market for moving products that facilitate this lacking any industry standards.